Model Assumptions — Simplified Simulator
A transparency report for our simulator and bankroll tools.
This page explains the basic math and assumptions that power our calculators. It is meant to help you understand what the results show and what they do not model.
How to use this page
- Read the assumptions before you use the calculator.
- Use the formulas below to see how win, push, and loss probabilities are derived.
- Note the limitations: this is a risk/pressure model, not a full blackjack rule simulator.
Summary
- Each hand is modeled as a single outcome: win, push, or loss.
- Push rate: default ~8% for blackjack (varies by rules and shoe composition).
- House edge (user input) is converted into win/loss probabilities via simple formulas (below).
- Win payout modeled as +1 unit, loss as -1 unit, push as 0 units.
Formulas
Let p = push rate, e = house edge (decimal). Then:
winProb = ((1 - p) - e) / 2 lossProb = ((1 - p) + e) / 2
How simulations work
- Run N sessions (user-selected). Each session plays M hands at a fixed unit size.
- For each hand, draw outcome using the probabilities above and update bankroll by +unit/0/-unit.
- Collect ending bankrolls, bust points, and summary statistics (average ending bankroll, P10/P90, bust rate).
Limitations
- No doubling, splitting, surrender, or blackjack 3:2 payout adjustments are modeled.
- No card-counting or deck composition effects are simulated.
- Bet sizing is fixed per hand for each simulated session (no progressive systems simulated).
- Intended to measure bankroll pressure and variance, not exact hand-level expectation for advanced strategies.
References
See the site pages for deeper explanations: How We Calculate Odds, Blackjack Bankroll Calculator.